Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 35.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.2
- Upside to median
- +1.2%
- Last close
- $71.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +7.6%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +2.6%
- P10
- -0.8%
87% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield near 5.3% as carry, plus duration times modeled 12-month yield changes across the justified-yield scenarios, less a small allowance for credit losses.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.6%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +4.2%
- P10
- +2.9%
Starting yield as the main anchor, with duration effects diluted over three years and reinvestment at scenario yields.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- +0.8%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a similar return with much lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 101.2 | $71.31 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.60 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.10 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.30 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.45 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.31 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.63 | — |