Energy
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $163.88
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -18.0%
- P10
- -35.0%
44% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-fund return from the official price path easing toward the mid-$80s for Brent, partly offset by roll yield in a backwardated curve and collateral income near Treasury-bill rates; escalation risk fattens the upper tail.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +4.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Normalization toward marginal-cost-supported prices over three years plus collateral income.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- -8.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher median with far lower uncertainty.