US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $769.66
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield near 2% plus high-single-digit forward earnings growth, less a drag from partial convergence toward the modeled median fair value; a long-run equity average is used only as a sanity check.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth fading toward nominal GDP, with about one-third of the fair-value gap closing over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is thin relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 92.0 | $769.66 | +6.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $523.28 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $280.18 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $721.25 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $217.52 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $557.98 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.88 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.92 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.18 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $115.45 | — |