China & Hong Kong Equities

October 27, 2026Data cutoff Oct 27, 2026, 6:41 PM EDT

All research on China & Hong Kong Equities →

Modeled fair value

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.4Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 26.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Median fair value: 108.0
Upside to median: +8.0%
Last close: $49.08
Confidence: moderate

Modeled returns

Return distributions, not point forecasts

Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.

One year

modeled

P90: +35.0%
P75: +22.0%
Median: +9.0%
P25: -5.0%
P10: -20.0%

66% of modeled scenarios end positive.

Dividend yield of about 3.5% plus mid-single-digit to high-single-digit earnings growth plus partial re-rating toward the modeled median fair value, with wide policy, geopolitical and earnings-risk dispersion.

Three years, annualised

modeled

P90: +18.0%
P75: +13.0%
Median: +7.5%
P25: +1.0%
P10: -6.0%

Income plus earnings growth with one-third of the fair-value gap assumed to close over three years.

Against the Treasury hurdle

1y Treasury: 4.50%
Modeled excess: +4.5%
Basis: direct

Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.

Instruments

9 in this asset class

Symbol	Valuation	Fair value	Last close	1y modeled
MCHI China Broad Market	+1.4Cheap	108.0	$49.08	+9.0%
2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker	—Unavailable	—	$23.70	—
3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index	—Unavailable	—	$3.72	—
ASHR China A-Shares	—Unavailable	—	$30.78	—
CHIQ China Consumer Sector	—Unavailable	—	$15.51	—
CQQQ China Technology Sector	—Unavailable	—	$39.49	—
EWH Hong Kong Broad Market	—Unavailable	—	$22.12	—
FXI China Large-Cap	—Unavailable	—	$32.50	—
KWEB China Internet Sector	—Unavailable	—	$23.13	—