Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $45.70
- Confidence
- low
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +75.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows; the median assumes the on-chain valuation ratio stays near its mid-range, with very wide dispersion reflecting historical drawdowns and adoption-driven rallies.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a comparable median with a small fraction of the uncertainty.