Valuation Lens — October 22, 2026
Chinese and emerging-market equities screen cheapest against today's modeled fair value, while crude oil, Developed Pacific and US equities screen expensive with real yields near decade highs.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.41% sets a demanding hurdle, with the 10-year real yield of 2.64% near the top of its 10-year range raising the discount rate applied to every long-duration asset.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.6%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.7Cheap
- Median fair value
- 108.6101.2–116.4
- Upside to median
- +8.6%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-22.0% to 39.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.6%
- +1.2Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.298.1–115.2
- Upside to median
- +6.2%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-20.0% to 35.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.6%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.098.7–103.2
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.6%-0.8% to 12.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.2%
- +0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.493.8–107.5
- Upside to median
- +0.4%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-13.5% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.6%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.385.2–119.4
- Upside to median
- +1.3%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-52.0% to 62.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.6%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.293.0–105.1
- Upside to median
- -0.8%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-16.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.6%
- MetalsGLD-0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 97.888.1–108.6
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-22.5% to 28.5%
- vs Treasury
- -1.4%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.588.3–101.9
- Upside to median
- -4.5%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-15.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.1%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.490.7–101.7
- Upside to median
- -3.6%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-16.0% to 27.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- -1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.386.4–98.6
- Upside to median
- -7.7%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-15.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
- EnergyUSO-2.2Expensive
- Median fair value
- 85.277.1–94.2
- Upside to median
- -14.8%
- 1y modeled
- -5.0%-40.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- -9.4%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 21.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 30.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 38.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 48.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 47.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 55.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 67.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 86.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources77
- 1
- 2P/Es & Yields on Major IndexesThe Wall Street Journal
- 3Shiller PE Ratiomultpl.com
- 4October: The Q4 ReloadCitadel Securities
- 5
- 6
- 7Health Care Sector ValuationSiblis Research
- 8
- 9MSCI EMU IndexMSCI
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 15
- 16Nikkei 225 P/E Ratio DataNikkei Inc.
- 17iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF (JPXN)BlackRock iShares
- 18MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 19
- 20
- 21Hang Seng Index CAPE and ValuationSiblis Research
- 22Morning Briefing 2026 archiveYardeni Research
- 23
- 24
- 25
- 26MSCI Korea IndexMSCI
- 27MSCI India IndexMSCI
- 28
- 29
- 30
- 31
- 32
- 33CAPE Ratios by CountrySiblis Research
- 34
- 35iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)BlackRock iShares
- 36iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)BlackRock iShares
- 37iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)BlackRock iShares
- 38iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)BlackRock iShares
- 39iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)BlackRock iShares
- 40iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)BlackRock iShares
- 41ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 42ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 43
- 44J.P. Morgan releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market AssumptionsJ.P. Morgan Asset Management (press release reprinted by Finviz)
- 45
- 46Commercial Property Price IndexGreen Street
- 47Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)Vanguard
- 48The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE)State Street Global Advisors
- 49iShares Global REIT ETF (REET)BlackRock iShares
- 50iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ)BlackRock iShares
- 51iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM)BlackRock iShares
- 52
- 53Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil MarketsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 54Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum ProductsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 55Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 56Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (DHHNGSP)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 57Dallas Fed Energy Survey, First Quarter 2026Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- 58Dallas Fed Energy Survey, Third Quarter 2026Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- 59Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) statisticsStockAnalysis
- 60
- 61Gold Price ChartKitco
- 62Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 63
- 64Silver Price ChartKitco
- 65Silver market deficit expected to widen again this yearEngineering News
- 66Platinum QuarterlyWorld Platinum Investment Council
- 67Copper PriceKitco
- 68ICSG sees global refined copper surplus widening in 2027Capital.com (Reuters report)
- 69VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) statisticsStockAnalysis
- 70Newmont third quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K)U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Newmont filing)
- 71Cryptocurrency Prices by Market CapCoinGecko
- 72Bitcoin MVRV RatioGlassnode
- 73Ethereum MVRV RatioGlassnode
- 74Bitcoin Realized PriceNewhedge
- 75Bitcoin ETF FlowFarside Investors
- 76Short-Term Energy Outlook data browserU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 77Platinum Price ChartKitco
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-10-22-261022001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.