Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.36
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-10-22
82/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +2.2%
- P10
- -0.8%
87% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to worst of 5.42% plus a small price gain from partial convergence to median fair value, less expected credit losses, with yield-change scenarios translated through duration.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.5%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +4.2%
- P10
- +3.0%
Starting yield anchor with reinvestment and duration effects over three years, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; the edge is modest and comes with duration risk.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.36 | +5.6% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.10 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.20 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.28 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.52 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.33 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.74 | — |