US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 67.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.5
- Upside to median
- -4.5%
- Last close
- $763.96
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-22
76/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield of about 2.5% plus haircut consensus earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with negatively skewed dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Three-year earnings path with shareholder yield and partial multiple normalization, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled edge for taking equity risk, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $527.89 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $276.67 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $704.47 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $218.22 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $523.35 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 95.5 | $763.96 | +6.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.65 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $166.73 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $181.30 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $115.01 | — |