Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 30.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 106.2
- Upside to median
- +6.2%
- Last close
- $56.85
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +22.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.5% plus haircut earnings growth (discounting peak-cycle semiconductor earnings) plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year normalized earnings path with dividends and partial multiple normalization, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread with wide dispersion, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $91.16 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $103.99 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $149.06 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.85 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.86 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.36 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 106.2 | $56.85 | +8.0% |