Metals
Today’s price sits at the 55.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.8
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- Last close
- $369.00
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.5%
- P75
- +16.5%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -10.5%
- P10
- -22.5%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; partial weight on institutional forecast paths offset by real-yield headwinds, with dispersion scaled to gold's realized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Real-yield and reserve-demand scenarios over three years, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher central return with far less uncertainty.