Energy
Today’s price sits at the 86.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.2
- Upside to median
- -14.8%
- Last close
- $162.51
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -23.0%
- P10
- -40.0%
43% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Collateral yield plus roll return from the backwardated futures curve, less expected normalization of front-month crude as supply recovers, with very wide dispersion for disruption risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.0%
- P75
- +2.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -13.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Official forecast path toward the mid-$70s Brent by late 2027 with collateral yield and roll, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- -9.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a materially higher central return with far lower uncertainty.