Crypto
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 47.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 101.3
- Upside to median
- +1.3%
- Last close
- $46.06
- Confidence
- low-moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-22
49/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +62.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -52.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; small drift from adoption scenarios with dispersion scaled to Bitcoin's realized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
MVRV-band scenarios over a three-year horizon, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; the edge is negligible relative to the very wide return range.