Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 79.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.3
- Upside to median
- -7.7%
- Last close
- $28.97
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-22
68/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 3.6% plus single-digit earnings growth less partial de-rating toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to benchmark volatility including currency.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year earnings path with dividends and partial multiple normalization, annualized.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.41%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a nearly competitive return with far less uncertainty.