Valuation Lens — November 15, 2026
China & Hong Kong and emerging-market equities screen cheapest against today's fair value; US equities, oil and REITs screen most expensive against a 4.65% 1-year Treasury hurdle.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.65% sets a high cash hurdle, with 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.15% and 2.91% near the top of their 10-year ranges.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.2%
- 10y real
- 2.9%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +2.0Cheap
- Median fair value
- 109.3102.7–116.2
- Upside to median
- +9.3%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-20.0% to 33.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.4%
- +1.6Cheap
- Median fair value
- 107.3100.7–114.2
- Upside to median
- +7.3%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-15.0% to 28.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.4%
- Fixed IncomeBND+1.0Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.599.1–103.9
- Upside to median
- +1.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.6%-1.0% to 11.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- +0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.096.9–109.1
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-12.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.4%
- +0.6Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.096.6–107.4
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-11.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 102.085.1–118.9
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-45.0% to 70.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.7%
- MetalsGLD-1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.081.6–100.4
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-18.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.7%
- -1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.089.6–100.4
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-12.0% to 21.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.4%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.785.8–99.3
- Upside to median
- -7.3%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-14.0% to 20.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.7%
- EnergyUSO-1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.281.1–98.2
- Upside to median
- -10.8%
- 1y modeled
- -6.0%-35.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- -10.7%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.784.8–98.3
- Upside to median
- -8.3%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-16.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.4%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 16.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 83% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 22.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 33.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 40.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 74.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 73.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 77.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 79.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources8
- 1
- 2P/E Ratios by Country 2026 (data through 31 October 2026)Siblis Research
- 3
- 4EIA sees Brent near $100/bbl through yearend 2026 as Middle East supply constraints persistOil & Gas Journal (reporting the U.S. EIA November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook)
- 5Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 OutlookWorld Gold Council
- 6
- 7Market Pulse November 2026Goldman Sachs Asset Management
- 8Bitcoin Falls Below Its One-Year MedianAxel Adler Jr.
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation-lens-2026-11-15-261115001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.