China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 16.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 83% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 109.3
- Upside to median
- +9.3%
- Last close
- $49.46
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: about 3% distribution yield plus mid-single-digit consensus earnings growth plus partial (roughly one-third) convergence toward median fair value, with a wide dispersion reflecting policy, property and geopolitical risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Same building blocks compounded over three years with fuller valuation convergence and partial mean reversion of dispersion.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +3.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.72 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.73 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.24 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.90 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $38.42 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.06 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.48 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $22.93 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +2.0Cheap | 109.3 | $49.46 | +8.0% |