Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 79.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.2
- Upside to median
- -10.8%
- Last close
- $145.58
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -35.0%
39% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-based return model: spot path along the supply-normalization scenarios, plus estimated roll yield from a backwardated curve and collateral interest; very wide dispersion for supply shocks.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +2.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
Same scenario set over three years with supply largely restored by mid-2027.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -10.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a far higher central return with much lower uncertainty.