Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $38.94
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +70.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model around the realized-value anchor with very wide dispersion; no income or carry component.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Not estimated: the supplied history is too short to anchor a defensible three-year return distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -0.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a similar central return with far lower uncertainty.