Metals
Today’s price sits at the 74.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $355.45
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model: central-bank demand supports price while high real yields and partial valuation convergence weigh on it; no income component.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Same scenario set over three years with fuller real-yield normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -1.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher central return with lower uncertainty.