Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $91.76
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model in US dollars: about 2.5% dividend yield plus buybacks, mid-single-digit earnings growth and modest convergence toward fair value, with an explicit yen-translation risk band.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Same building blocks over three years with continued capital-return improvement.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments