US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 80.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.7
- Upside to median
- -8.3%
- Last close
- $754.37
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
77/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building-block model: about 1.1% dividend yield plus about 7% earnings growth (below consensus to reflect record margins), less partial (roughly one-third) convergence toward median fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Same building blocks over three years with fuller margin and multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 4.65% 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a nearly equal central return with much lower uncertainty.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $523.15 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $277.54 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $679.86 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $221.16 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $486.66 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 91.7 | $754.37 | +5.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.68 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.78 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $188.85 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $119.98 | — |