Valuation Lens — November 14, 2026

Crude oil, U.S. equities and Developed Pacific equities screen expensive against today's fair-value estimates, bonds screen modestly cheap, and a 4.65% one-year Treasury leaves thin expected edges for most risk assets.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 14, 2026Last market session Nov 13, 2026Data cutoff Nov 14, 2026, 2:02 AM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.65%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury pays 4.65% on an investment basis while 10-year nominal and real yields of 5.15% and 2.91% sit near two-decade highs, a demanding hurdle for every risk asset.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.299.3–103.0
Upside to median
+1.2%
1y modeled
+5.3%-1.7% to 11.7%
vs Treasury
+0.7%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.495.5–107.0
Upside to median
+1.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-13.5% to 26.2%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.794.1–109.0
Upside to median
+1.7%
1y modeled
+8.0%-17.6% to 31.1%
vs Treasury
+3.4%
Real EstateVNQ
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.493.9–106.7
Upside to median
+0.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-16.1% to 27.5%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.693.0–108.5
Upside to median
+0.6%
1y modeled
+8.0%-22.8% to 36.2%
vs Treasury
+3.4%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
98.383.6–115.0
Upside to median
-1.7%
1y modeled
—— to —
vs Treasury
—
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.490.5–102.0
Upside to median
-3.6%
1y modeled
+6.5%-12.7% to 23.2%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
MetalsGLD
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.183.7–102.0
Upside to median
-6.9%
1y modeled
0.0%-20.5% to 23.1%
vs Treasury
-4.7%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
91.685.3–98.1
Upside to median
-8.4%
1y modeled
+4.5%-14.7% to 21.2%
vs Treasury
-0.2%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
93.488.2–98.3
Upside to median
-6.6%
1y modeled
+6.0%-13.2% to 22.7%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
EnergyUSO
-2.2
Expensive
Median fair value
86.579.4–94.4
Upside to median
-13.5%
1y modeled
0.0%-32.0% to 38.4%
vs Treasury
-4.7%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-14, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	101.2 99.3–103.0	+1.2%	+5.3% -1.7% to 11.7%	+0.7%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	101.4 95.5–107.0	+1.4%	+7.0% -13.5% to 26.2%	+2.4%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	101.7 94.1–109.0	+1.7%	+8.0% -17.6% to 31.1%	+3.4%
Real Estate VNQ	+0.1 Fair	100.4 93.9–106.7	+0.4%	+7.0% -16.1% to 27.5%	+2.4%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.1 Fair	100.6 93.0–108.5	+0.6%	+8.0% -22.8% to 36.2%	+3.4%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.2 Fair	98.3 83.6–115.0	-1.7%	— — to —	—
Europe Equities VGK	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	96.4 90.5–102.0	-3.6%	+6.5% -12.7% to 23.2%	+1.9%
Metals GLD	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.1 83.7–102.0	-6.9%	0.0% -20.5% to 23.1%	-4.7%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.8 Expensive	91.6 85.3–98.1	-8.4%	+4.5% -14.7% to 21.2%	-0.2%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	93.4 88.2–98.3	-6.6%	+6.0% -13.2% to 22.7%	+1.4%
Energy USO	-2.2 Expensive	86.5 79.4–94.4	-13.5%	0.0% -32.0% to 38.4%	-4.7%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 68%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 54%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 49%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 80%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 40%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-2.2Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 87.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 44%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources13

1
Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years
FactSet Insight
2
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026
FactSet Insight
3
Market Is Punishing Negative EPS Surprises Less Than Average for S&P 500 Companies for Q3
FactSet Insight
4
Morning Briefing Archive (2026): November 9-11 briefings
Yardeni Research
5
P/E Ratios by Country 2026 (data through 31 October 2026)
Siblis Research
6
Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026 (data through 31 October 2026)
Siblis Research
7
Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
8
Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 - Central Banks
World Gold Council
9
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices)
10
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ICE Data Indices)
11
REITs: The Cure for High Rates is High Rates (November 2026)
Chilton Capital Management
12
Week in Review - Oil Prices Trend Lower Following Recovery in Middle East Exports
Mansfield Energy
13
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Chart
Newhedge

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-11-14-r1

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.