US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.4
- Upside to median
- -6.6%
- Last close
- $754.37
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.7%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -4.1%
- P10
- -13.2%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building blocks: about 1.2% dividend yield, 7% per-share earnings growth after a haircut to consensus, and a 2-point annual drag from partial convergence toward median fair value; the asymmetric spread reflects elevated realized equity volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Dividend yield plus about 7% earnings growth, less a multiple-normalization drag spread over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $523.15 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $277.54 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $679.86 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $221.16 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $486.66 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 93.4 | $754.37 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.68 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.78 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $188.85 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $119.98 | — |