Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 69.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.1
- Upside to median
- -6.9%
- Last close
- $355.45
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
57/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.1%
- P75
- +12.1%
- Median
- 0.0%
- P25
- -10.8%
- P10
- -20.5%
50% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; partial convergence toward the median fair value offset by inflation drift and steady official buying; the wide spread reflects gold's volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +3.5%
- Median
- -1.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -10.0%
Gradual convergence toward the official-demand-regime fair value plus inflation drift.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -4.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasuries offer a higher central return with far less uncertainty.
Instruments