Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.6
- Upside to median
- -8.4%
- Last close
- $29.09
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
60/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.2%
- P75
- +13.3%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -5.6%
- P10
- -14.7%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
About 3.5% dividend yield plus 3.5% earnings growth, less a 2.5-point annual drag from partial multiple normalization; the spread reflects regional equity volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Dividends plus modest earnings growth, less a multi-year multiple-normalization drag.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -0.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a similar central return with far less uncertainty.