Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 33.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.2
- Upside to median
- +1.2%
- Last close
- $70.60
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
76/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.7%
- P75
- +8.7%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +1.6%
- P10
- -1.7%
83% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting aggregate yield-to-worst near 5.3% (carry) plus a small valuation contribution, with duration-driven dispersion of about 5 points; asymmetric because rate rises from here would come with higher inflation risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +6.8%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +2.5%
Starting yield dominates three-year bond returns; dispersion comes from duration and reinvestment rates.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 101.2 | $70.60 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.94 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.07 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $102.81 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.17 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.61 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $79.38 | — |