Energy
Today’s price sits at the 87.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.5
- Upside to median
- -13.5%
- Last close
- $145.58
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.4%
- P75
- +20.2%
- Median
- 0.0%
- P25
- -16.9%
- P10
- -32.0%
50% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected front-month crude decline toward the official forecast path, offset by an assumed backwardated futures roll and Treasury-bill collateral income, less fund costs; the very wide spread reflects geopolitical supply risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +4.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
Crude converging toward the $70-80 range over three years, partly offset by collateral income and roll yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -4.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasuries offer a higher central return with far less uncertainty.