Crypto
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 52.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 98.3
- Upside to median
- -1.7%
- Last close
- $38.94
- Confidence
- low-moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
41/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Not modeled: there is no cash-flow anchor and no historical base rate for the benchmark.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Not modeled: there is no cash-flow anchor and the benchmark history is too short.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- —
- Basis
- unavailable
No modeled 1-year return is published, so no Treasury spread is shown.