Valuation Lens — October 24, 2026

With 10-year Treasury yields at 5%, only bonds screen cheap; oil, gold, Australia and Japan sit furthest above modeled fair value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 24, 2026Last market session Oct 23, 2026Data cutoff Oct 24, 2026, 2:05 AM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.44%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% sets the annual cash hurdle, while the 10-year nominal (5.00%) and real (2.66%) yields sit near the top of their 10-year ranges and raise the discount rate for every long-duration asset.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.7%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.599.1–103.9
Upside to median
+1.5%
1y modeled
+5.5%0.5% to 10.5%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.991.4–111.0
Upside to median
+0.9%
1y modeled
+7.0%-22.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
+2.6%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.688.0–103.5
Upside to median
-4.4%
1y modeled
+5.0%-13.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.388.0–102.9
Upside to median
-4.8%
1y modeled
+5.0%-14.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+0.6%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.386.4–102.6
Upside to median
-5.8%
1y modeled
+6.0%-17.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+1.6%
CryptoBTC-USD
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
87.070.2–105.5
Upside to median
-13.0%
1y modeled
+2.0%-45.0% to 55.0%
vs Treasury
-2.4%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
93.386.0–100.9
Upside to median
-6.8%
1y modeled
+5.5%-15.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
90.383.0–97.9
Upside to median
-9.8%
1y modeled
+4.5%-15.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+0.1%
MetalsGLD
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
85.374.0–96.9
Upside to median
-14.8%
1y modeled
+1.0%-20.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
-3.4%
EnergyUSO
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
83.872.8–96.0
Upside to median
-16.2%
1y modeled
-12.0%-42.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-16.4%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
89.382.0–96.9
Upside to median
-10.8%
1y modeled
+4.0%-14.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
-0.4%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-24, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	101.5 99.1–103.9	+1.5%	+5.5% 0.5% to 10.5%	+1.1%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.1 Fair	100.9 91.4–111.0	+0.9%	+7.0% -22.0% to 33.0%	+2.6%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	95.6 88.0–103.5	-4.4%	+5.0% -13.0% to 21.0%	+0.6%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	95.3 88.0–102.9	-4.8%	+5.0% -14.0% to 22.0%	+0.6%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	94.3 86.4–102.6	-5.8%	+6.0% -17.0% to 27.0%	+1.6%
Crypto BTC-USD	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	87.0 70.2–105.5	-13.0%	+2.0% -45.0% to 55.0%	-2.4%
US Equities SPY	-1.3 Expensive	93.3 86.0–100.9	-6.8%	+5.5% -15.0% to 23.0%	+1.1%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.8 Expensive	90.3 83.0–97.9	-9.8%	+4.5% -15.0% to 22.0%	+0.1%
Metals GLD	-1.8 Expensive	85.3 74.0–96.9	-14.8%	+1.0% -20.0% to 21.0%	-3.4%
Energy USO	-1.9 Expensive	83.8 72.8–96.0	-16.2%	-12.0% -42.0% to 22.0%	-16.4%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.0 Expensive	89.3 82.0–96.9	-10.8%	+4.0% -14.0% to 20.0%	-0.4%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 50%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 53%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 80%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 69%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 41%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 25%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources11

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 16, 2026
FactSet
2
Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
3
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — fund characteristics
BlackRock iShares
4
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — fund characteristics
BlackRock iShares
5
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — fund characteristics
BlackRock iShares
6
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) — fund characteristics
BlackRock iShares
7
iShares Europe ETF (IEV) — fund characteristics
BlackRock iShares
8
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) — fund characteristics
BlackRock iShares
9
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker (Q2 2026)
Nareit
10
MVRV Explained
BIT Knowledge Hub
11
Gold demand steadies as prices cool, but buying by central banks picks up
Eyewitness News (reporting World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026)

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-10-24-01

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.