China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 47.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 100.9
- Upside to median
- +0.9%
- Last close
- $49.00
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield near 2% plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with no assumed re-rating; dispersion reflects high policy, geopolitical and currency volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth with partial convergence toward the fair-value median; wide range for policy risk.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.76 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.80 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.74 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.64 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.26 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.73 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $32.31 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.14 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.1Fair | 100.9 | $49.00 | +7.0% |