Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 34.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.5
- Upside to median
- +1.5%
- Last close
- $71.20
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- +0.5%
93% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting aggregate-bond yield near 5.1% as carry, plus duration-weighted price change from the yield scenarios and a modest credit-loss allowance; dispersion reflects about 6 years of duration against a 0.6 pp one-sigma yield move.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.7%
- P75
- +6.5%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +4.1%
- P10
- +2.8%
Starting yield anchors the 3-year annualized return; price effects amortize toward maturity, narrowing the range.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | $71.20 | +5.5% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.05 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.05 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.85 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.50 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.24 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.34 | — |