US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 72.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.3
- Upside to median
- -6.8%
- Last close
- $759.97
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and net buyback yield near 2.5% plus about 10% forward earnings growth, less multiple compression toward the rate-adjusted fair value; dispersion reflects typical large-cap equity volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth that slows from the current pace, with partial margin normalization and convergence toward the fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $521.37 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $275.75 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $704.40 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.54 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $527.20 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.3Expensive | 93.3 | $759.97 | +5.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.90 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $164.62 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.28 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $113.10 | — |