Energy
Today’s price sits at the 81.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 83.8
- Upside to median
- -16.2%
- Last close
- $169.53
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- -12.0%
- P25
- -27.0%
- P10
- -42.0%
31% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Spot price path toward the official forecast as supply recovers, partly offset by positive roll yield from a backwardated futures curve; very wide dispersion for supply-disruption risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +3.5%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Normalization toward marginal-cost pricing over three years plus roll yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -16.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.