Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 80.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.3
- Upside to median
- -9.8%
- Last close
- $94.10
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-23
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield near 3% plus about 6% earnings growth, less de-rating toward the fair-value median; yen translation adds dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth with partial convergence toward the fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +0.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments