Metals
Today’s price sits at the 80.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.3
- Upside to median
- -14.8%
- Last close
- $366.61
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; continued official-sector demand roughly offset by a partial move toward the fair-value median and a high real-yield opportunity cost.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +6.5%
- Median
- +1.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -9.0%
Demand-regime scenarios with partial convergence toward the fair-value median.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -3.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis); a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.