Valuation Lens — October 19, 2026
US equities rank most expensive as a 5.15% 10-year yield and record market-cap-to-GDP squeeze the equity risk premium; China and core bonds screen modestly cheap.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 4.50% 1-year Treasury par yield is the annual hurdle, with the 10-year at 5.15% and the 10-year real yield at 2.80%, both near the top of their 20-year ranges.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.2%
- 10y real
- 2.8%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.2Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 108.097.9–119.5
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-20.0% to 33.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.5%
- Fixed IncomeBND+1.1Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.099.3–104.4
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.8%-1.5% to 11.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.3%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.094.2–113.1
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-16.0% to 28.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.091.6–105.8
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-14.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.0%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.090.9–106.4
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-14.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.0%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 98.081.8–118.2
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-45.0% to 70.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
- -0.9Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.088.6–102.8
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-15.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- MetalsGLD-1.3Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.079.9–101.4
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-18.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.5%
- EnergyXLE-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 88.078.6–98.8
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- 1y modeled
- -2.0%-28.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- -6.5%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.084.6–98.8
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-13.0% to 20.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
- US EquitiesSPY-2.0Expensive
- Median fair value
- 88.079.2–96.1
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-17.0% to 21.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 29.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 30.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 71.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 77.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 84.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Sources51
- 1
- 2P/Es & Yields on Major IndexesThe Wall Street Journal / Birinyi Associates
- 3
- 4Damodaran On-line Home Page (implied equity risk premium)Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern
- 5Shiller PE Ratiomultpl.com
- 6S&P 500 Index Earnings & Revenue Growth Rate EstimatesFirst Trust Portfolios
- 7
- 8Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 9VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFVanguard
- 10MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 11iShares MSCI Japan ETFBlackRock iShares
- 12Japanese equities set for a boostportfolio institutional
- 13
- 14
- 15Emerging Markets P/E & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 16MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 17iShares MSCI China ETFBlackRock iShares
- 18
- 19
- 20iShares MSCI Australia ETFBlackRock iShares
- 21MSCI EAFE IndexMSCI
- 22
- 23
- 24
- 25
- 26iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETFBlackRock iShares
- 27iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETFBlackRock iShares
- 28ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted SpreadFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / ICE Data Indices
- 29ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted SpreadFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / ICE Data Indices
- 30Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 Central BanksWorld Gold Council
- 31
- 32Gold price todayPriceGold.net
- 33Silver market deficit expected to widen again this yearEngineering News (citing The Silver Institute / Metals Focus)
- 34ICSG sees global refined copper surplus widening in 2027Mining Weekly (Reuters)
- 35Platinum QuarterlyWorld Platinum Investment Council
- 36Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil marketsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 37Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 38
- 39State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)State Street Global Advisors
- 40Bitcoin PriceCoinGecko
- 41Ethereum PriceCoinGecko
- 42MVRV ExplainedBIT Knowledge Hub
- 43iShares Bitcoin Trust ETFBlackRock iShares
- 44[Risk Stewards] August 2026 - WETH Interest Rate AdjustmentAave Governance Forum (TokenLogic)
- 45Today in Energy: Daily PricesU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 46MSCI Korea IndexMSCI
- 47
- 48MSCI India IndexMSCI
- 49
- 50iShares MSCI Eurozone ETFBlackRock iShares
- 51VNQ ETF Stock Price & OverviewStockAnalysis.com
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-10-19-261019001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.