Metals
Today’s price sits at the 71.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $379.69
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income: central-bank demand and published forecasts offset by partial pressure from 2.8% real yields; fund expense deducted.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Gradual partial convergence toward median fair value offset by structural official-sector demand.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.