Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 30.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $70.60
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -1.5%
84% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity (5.56%) as carry plus duration-weighted price change across justified-yield scenarios; spread widening applied to the credit sleeve.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.3%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- +2.5%
Starting yield anchors the 3-year return; reinvestment and price effects partially offset over the duration horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- +1.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a competitive, near-certain alternative.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $70.60 | +5.8% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.83 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.08 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $102.88 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.31 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.26 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $79.46 | — |