Energy
Today’s price sits at the 77.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $67.80
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -14.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
46% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.4%) plus producer earnings tracking the official Brent path back toward the mid-80s, with an upside tail for prolonged outages.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
Mid-cycle earnings and income, with partial convergence toward median fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- -6.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher modeled return with far lower uncertainty.