US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 84.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $766.48
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 1.1%) plus forward EPS growth near 12%, offset by forward P/E compression from 19x toward about 17.5x under 5%+ Treasury yields.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
About 8% annual EPS growth plus income, less roughly 4% a year from partial convergence toward median fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $518.92 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $271.28 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $718.36 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $213.40 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $548.46 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 88.0 | $766.48 | +4.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.06 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $166.68 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $175.65 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $114.46 | — |