China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 29.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 108.0
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- Last close
- $50.87
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-19
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.4%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (about 8%) plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with very wide tails for policy, geopolitical and currency shocks.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Income plus mid-single-digit EPS growth plus one-third annual convergence of the fair-value gap.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.50%
- Modeled excess
- +4.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.82 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.03 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.28 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.13 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.99 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.96 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.53 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.28 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $50.87 | +9.0% |