Valuation Lens — September 7, 2026
Valuation is selective, with cheaper China and emerging markets offset by expensive U.S., Japan and Pacific equities
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.11% on an investment basis, while real yields remain positive and material for valuation discount rates.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.8%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.2Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.098.0–106.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.8%-20.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.7%
- +1.2Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.096.0–114.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-22.0% to 36.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- Real EstateVNQ+0.9Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.096.0–105.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.8%-18.0% to 33.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.7%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 100.599.0–102.5
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- 1y modeled
- +4.8%-2.5% to 11.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.7%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 96.080.0–123.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-45.0% to 78.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.9%
- MetalsGLD-0.5Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 100.086.0–110.0
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.5%-20.0% to 34.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.6%
- -0.6Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 100.092.0–105.0
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-15.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.090.0–102.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.8%-18.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.7%
- -1.3Expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.090.0–103.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-16.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- -1.3Expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.087.0–101.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-17.0% to 28.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.4%
- EnergyUSO-1.3Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.076.0–103.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +0.5%-28.0% to 38.0%
- vs Treasury
- -3.6%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 30.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 30.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources16
- 1Guide to the Markets - Europe: Regional equity valuationsJ.P. Morgan Asset Management
- 2
- 3MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 4
- 5MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9Vanguard Total Bond Market ETFVanguard
- 10
- 11
- 12Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 13Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026: Central banksWorld Gold Council
- 14Central banks set to step up gold buying over the next yearWorld Gold Council
- 15BTC MVRV by Age ChartGlassnode
- 16
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-09-07_valuation-lens_214751-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.