Metals
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.0
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- Last close
- $406.77
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
74/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from real-yield pressure, reserve demand and wide commodity-specific scenarios; dispersion is intentionally broad.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year annualized scenario distribution using the same economic anchors with slower valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- -0.6%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle. Expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed; DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.
Instruments