US Equities
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $770.19
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
91/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from current valuation, forward earnings, Treasury discount rates, and Vanguard long-run return priors; one-year convergence is deliberately partial.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year annualized scenario distribution using the same economic anchors with slower valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle. Expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed; DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $770.19 | +4.8% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $718.96 | — |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $534.08 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $296.01 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $219.00 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.10 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $175.27 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $171.45 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $114.91 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $567.01 | — |