Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $79,157.41
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +78.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from MVRV/realized-value anchors and broad network-premium scenarios; reliability is intentionally lower than for contractual cash-flow assets.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Three-year annualized scenario distribution using the same economic anchors with slower valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Modeled excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle. Expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed; DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.