China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 30.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $54.91
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
82/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from current MSCI valuation anchors, long-run regional forward-P/E ranges and partial valuation normalization.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year annualized scenario distribution using the same economic anchors with slower valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- +1.7%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle. Expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed; DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $54.91 | +5.8% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $35.88 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $26.05 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $34.20 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $48.22 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $17.10 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.20 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $26.26 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.48 | — |
| 3110.HK Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity | —Unavailable | — | $31.54 | — |