Energy
Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $141.96
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +0.5%
- P25
- -14.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
51% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from EIA oil supply-demand and price paths with wide disruption scenarios; commodity carry and producer-equity economics increase dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year annualized scenario distribution using the same economic anchors with slower valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- -3.6%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle. Expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed; DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.