Fixed Income
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.5
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- Last close
- $71.95
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
94/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +7.8%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
81% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from starting YTM, duration-based yield-shift scenarios and current Treasury curve; carry is kept separate from current fair value.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.2%
- P75
- +6.5%
- Median
- +4.9%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- +1.0%
Three-year annualized scenario distribution using the same economic anchors with slower valuation convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle. Expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed; DTB1YR remains a discount-basis reference.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 100.5 | $71.95 | +4.8% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $82.21 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $92.25 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.69 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.97 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $105.48 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $79.16 | — |