Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $72.24
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-31
89/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
78% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended growth/carry, partial valuation convergence, rate hurdle and cross-checked scenario distribution.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +9.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- 0.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario model with partial, not full, valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.04%
- Expected excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $72.24 | +5.5% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $82.52 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | — | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $79.81 | — |