Both lenses score −3 to +3, in different senses: on Market Lens, +3 is strongly supportive conditions; on Valuation Lens, +3 is very cheap against modeled fair value.
Market Lens
- Trend
- Downtrend
- Volatility
- Low
- Vs trend
- Near trend
The broad bond market is in a low-volatility downtrend near trend and finished 16 October flat. Its strongest related force is September's consumer inflation, which keeps yields near 5% across the Treasury and agency duration it holds.
Full evidence →Valuation Lens
- Median fair value
- 101.0market = 100
- 1y modeled return
- +5.4%
Representative benchmark: high starting yields put modeled fair value about 1% above price; most of the expected return is carry.
Full distribution →Risk profile
- Annualised volatility
- 6.1%
- Max drawdown
- -17.5%
- 5y return (CAGR)
- -0.4%
Realized statistics from five years of monthly total returns. Historical risk is context, not a forecast.
Reading the two together
Cheap, but conditions are against itThe model sees value, but current conditions are unsupportive. Value without a catalyst can stay unrewarded for a long time.
Supporting and opposing conditions
Supportive
- Positive five-day change of 0.85%
Opposing
- Largest class weight in a downtrend