Fixed Income
Inflation surprises and an oil shock keep bonds in a downtrend
Both lenses score −3 to +3, in different senses: on Market Lens, +3 is strongly supportive conditions; on Valuation Lens, +3 is very cheap against modeled fair value.
Market Lens
-1.0Cautious
Price behaviour and news evidence agree on caution: bonds are in a shallow, persistent downtrend and the news balance is the most negative in the set, with only the expected October Fed pause offering relief.
- Technical
- News & Events
-0.7
-1.4
Valuation Lens
+0.7Somewhat cheap
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%
History